Liberal Tim Wilson projected to win Goldstein back from teal Zoe Daniel in nail-biting count

Tim Wilson looks set to reclaim his inner-Melbourne seat from the teal independent Zoe Daniel in a nail-biting race that will give the Liberals a glimmer of hope after an election night wipeout.

The ABC’s election analyst, Antony Green, called Goldstein for Wilson on Tuesday afternoon after the former MP took the lead during postal vote counting.

As of 6pm Tuesday, Wilson led Daniel by less than a thousand votes with 80% of the ballots counted. About 5,000 postal votes still needed to be processed as well as absentee ballots, which typically favour the Liberals.

Wilson’s tight lead was expected to grow as more postal votes were counted but Daniel would wait for final results before conceding.

“Out of respect for my scrutineers and the democratic process I will await further counting. With the margin in the hundreds and the remaining votes in the thousands this seems sensible,” Daniel said in a statement.

“Again, I thank all of those who supported me in so many ways during my campaign and with their vote.”

Daniel had claimed victory shortly after results began filtering in on Saturday night but later acknowledged the outcome was “obviously close” and would require some days before it was confirmed.

If Daniel’s loss in Goldstein is confirmed, it would mark the first reversal of teal independent gains in the 2022 federal election.

The former ABC journalist held Goldstein on a 3.3% two-candidate preferred margin after winning 34.5% of the primary vote. In the 2022 election Wilson suffered a 12% swing against him, which was partly attributed to the former prime minister Scott Morrison’s dwindling popularity.

The Liberals had held Goldstein since it was created in 1984.

In the nearby seat of Kooyong, the independent Monique Ryan was also under threat after her Liberal challenger, Amelia Hamer, narrowed the lead on postal votes.

While Daniel and Ryan’s seats were under close watch, their teal colleagues in Curtin, Mackellar, Warringah and Wentworth all gained swings in their favour.

In the Liberal-held seat of Bradfield, the battle between independent challenger Nicolette Boele and Liberal Gisele Kapterian was down to the wire.

Wilson’s team remained cautiously optimistic about his return to Canberra after he was ousted by Daniel at the 2022 federal election.

The return of Wilson to the opposition’s lower house benches would be seen as a boost for the party’s otherwise electoral thumping under Peter Dutton’s leadership.

The moderate Liberal, who first entered federal parliament in 2016, was a strong advocate for marriage equality, using his maiden speech to deliver an emotional promise to “lead change”.

During the election campaign, Wilson faced criticism for an ad featuring a “tradie” who shared an uncanny resemblance to a Liberal campaigner on his team.